Translates the 85% national target into a trust-specific safety ceiling, adjusted for geographic substitutability and demand profile. Based on two-way fixed-effects panel analysis of 3,551+ NHS trust-quarters, 2018–25. Full methodology on GitHub.
Local safety ceiling
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recommended local occupancy ceiling
Methodology: Bevan Briefing NHS Bed Occupancy Analysis 2025. Coefficients from OLS panel regression, trust + time FE, clustered SE. Data: KH03, NHS England A&E SitRep, 2018–25. github.com/LB1983/nhs-bed-occupancy-analysis